F5-Networks F50-528 : F5 ARX Configuring 5.x test DumpsExam Dumps Organized by Lee |
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Exam Number : F50-528
Exam Name : F5 ARX Configuring 5.x
Vendor Name : F5-Networks
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F5: Hardware Headwinds Hittingpiranka Despite the stock performing well over the past five months, F5, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FFIV) returns in 2023 are still only in line with broader indices. This is counter to my expectation of poor performance due to: While system sales are expected to drop sharply going forward and F5's new businesses have so far demonstrated limited traction, margins have rebounded sharply due to F5's focus on expenses. This, along with a modest valuation, has helped F5's stock perform strongly in the second half of 2023. MarketF5 stated on its fourth quarter earnings call that the demand environment has shown signs of stabilization, particularly amongst enterprise customers. F5's hardware orders reportedly rebounded in the fourth quarter, supporting this view. In terms of verticals, technology and financial services customers were areas of strength, offset by service provider weakness. Service providers are delaying asset purchases and prioritizing spending. F5 expects continued growth in FY2024, driven by automation and generative AI. F5 also believes that customers will be forced to begin investing in application infrastructure again. Given the boom in hardware spending over the past three years it is not obvious that this will be the case though. Some customers have obviously delayed purchases due to financial pressure, but I would be surprised if this represents a majority, or even a significant minority of customers. F5F5 provides a range of solutions that help to deliver, secure and optimize applications and APIs across any environment. It has both hardware and software offerings, many of which have come through acquisitions. F5 is still in the process of integrating these solutions into a converged solution though. This is change that has been necessitated by the growing importance of the cloud and edge computing, which has changed how applications are developed and deployed. While F5 has positioned itself to remain relevant, there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding what extent acquisitions will offset structural headwinds to F5's legacy business. F5's Distributed Cloud Services offering now has over 500 customers, more than a 200% increase YoY. Penetration has predominantly been within F5's existing customer base so far though, with only 29% of Distributed Cloud customers new to F5. WAF and multi-cloud networking are F5's first two distributed cloud solutions. CDN capabilities were also recently added through the acquisitions of Lilac, and F5 has a backlog of other services it wants to add to the platform. F5 is seeing continued adoption of NGINX amongst larger enterprises for their cloud and Kubernetes workloads. Customers are also leveraging NGINX for app layer security for containers. NGINX serves modern, container-native and microservices-based applications and APIs. While F5's ADC business will continue to face headwinds, the company continues to invest in it, and as a result, expects to take a share in both hardware and software form factors. F5 aims to provide on-prem deployments with the benefits of the cloud (multi-tenancy, rapid upgrades, etc.) while lowering total cost of ownership. F5's rSeries and VELOS platforms represented more than 80% of Q4 systems bookings. rSeries is designed on a new microservices-based platform layer and an API-first architecture. It supports BIG-IP app delivery and security services and aims to lower costs through consolidation. VELOS is a next-generation chassis system that aims to provide performance and scalability in a single ADC. Customers can scale capacity by adding modular blades in a chassis, without disrupting users or applications. Security is an important part of F5's business, contributing approximately 1.1 billion USD revenue in FY2023. F5 was disappointed with the performance of its most advanced anti-bot and anti-fraud managed service solutions this year, which it attributed to customer spending caution and budget scrutiny. F5 has reportedly seen good traction with its lower-end Distributed Cloud anti-bot offering though, as well as from security on NGINX. AILike most edge computing companies, F5 is counting on AI inference workloads to provide a tailwind. Organizations will need to support inference across datacenters, public clouds and the network edge, which F5 believes it is positioned to support. While inference could begin to create incremental demand in 2024, I think it is still too early for this to be material for companies like F5. F5 also expects the use of AI to accelerate growth in the number of applications and APIs, which would naturally be a tailwind for F5's business. The number of applications is likely to be limited by demand rather than supply though. Applications require users and organizations must acquire these users, the real bottleneck to growth in most cases. Financial AnalysisF5's fourth quarter revenue was 707 million USD, a 1% increase YoY, with 54% of revenue coming from services and 46% from product. Services revenue grew 9% on the back of high maintenance renewals and price increases. Service revenue is likely to moderate going forward as F5 laps price increases and spending on upgrades versus maintenance normalizes. Product revenue increased 7% YoY, with systems revenue down 25% due to lower backlog related shipments. Backlog has now returned to normal levels, which will present roughly a 180 million USD revenue headwind in FY2024. BIG-IP and NGINX term subscriptions were up 9% in FY23. SaaS (includes Distributed Cloud) and managed services only increased 2% though. F5 has stated that it is seeing solid momentum from its Distributed Cloud business, but this isn't apparent in public data. Some of this is the result of planned revenue churn. Managed services include F5's legacy Silverline offering as well as some legacy SaaS solutions. F5 is currently in the process of migrating customers from its Silverline solution to the Distributed Cloud offering, which is creating headwinds. The company is also abandoning some legacy SaaS offerings from the companies it acquired. This process involves 65 million USD ARR in total, half of which is from offerings that F5 is retiring completely. The process is expected to be completed over the next year. F5's perpetual license software revenue was also down in FY2023, although the company attributed this to an unusually strong prior year. F5 expects customer caution to continue in FY2024 but also believes that customers will need to begin replacing assets again in the next year. Software is expected to provide flat to modest revenue growth due to headwinds from the transition of SaaS and managed service offerings. Global services revenue is expected to return to low-single-digit growth as F5 laps price increases. As a result, FY2024 revenue is expected to be flat to down low-single-digits YoY. F5 expects to return to mid-single-digit revenue growth in FY2025 though. While F5 has suggested that supply chain issues have largely resolved and delivery times normalized, F5's product margins remain depressed. How much if this is due to revenue mix, versus declining system or software margins is unclear though. This is an important trend to watch as F5 needs to maintain high gross profit margins to support investment in its security and distributed cloud businesses. While gross profit margins remain under pressure, F5's operating profit margins have rebounded sharply in recent quarters, with much of the change driven by improved sales and marketing efficiency. F5 has been focused on reducing its operating expenses, but given the company's ambitions, it still needs to invest in product development and customer acquisition. How these dynamics play out in coming quarters will have a large impact on F5's share price going forward. ConclusionDespite the stock moving around 20% higher over the past two months, F5 still appears reasonably valued, with the company's EV/S multiple towards the lower end of its historical range. Investors need to weigh its valuation against uncertain growth prospects and the potential for margin compression as the company invests in growth initiatives. The fact that software revenue has been fairly flat over the past 15 months and is expected to remain fairly flat over the next 12 months is hardly comforting. The recent drop in sales and marketing expenses also isn't suggestive of a company capitalizing on a large growth opportunity. F5's internal expectations are for long-term software growth in excess of 20%, offset by high to mid-single digit systems revenue decline. If F5's distributed cloud business struggles, the stock could still prove expensive at current levels. After A 13% Fall This Year How Does Ciena Compare With F5 Stock?BRAZIL - 2021/04/15: In this photo illustration, the F5 Networks logo seen displayed on a smartphone ... [+] screen and stock market information. (Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty ImagesGiven its better prospects, they believe Ciena stock (NYSE: CIEN), a network hardware, software, and services provider, is a better pick than its sector peer, F5 Networks stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : FFIV), an application security and cloud networking company. Investors have assigned a higher valuation multiple of 3.7x revenues for FFIV compared to 1.5x revenues for CIEN due to F5’s superior revenue growth and profitability. The decision to invest often comes down to finding the best stocks within the parameters of certain characteristics that suit an investment style. The size of profits can matter, as larger profits can imply greater market power. In the sections below, they discuss why they believe that CIEN will offer better returns than FFIV in the next three years. They compare a slew of factors, such as historical revenue growth, stock returns, and valuation, in an interactive dashboard analysis of F5 vs. Ciena CIEN : Which Stock Is A Better Bet? Parts of the analysis are summarized below. FFIV stock has seen little change, moving slightly from levels of $175 in early January 2021 to around $175 now, while CIEN stock has seen a decline of 20% from levels of $55 to around $45 over the same period. In comparison, the S&P500 index saw an increase of about 25% over this roughly three-year period. Overall, the performance of FFIV stock with respect to the index has been lackluster. Returns for the stock were 39% in 2021, -41% in 2022, and 21% in 2023. Similarly, however, the decrease in CIEN stock has been far from consistent. Returns for the stock were 46% in 2021, -34% in 2022, and -13% in 2023. In comparison, returns for the S&P 500 have been 27% in 2021, -19% in 2022, and 23% in 2023 - indicating that FFIV and CIEN underperformed the S&P in 2022 and 2023. In fact, consistently beating the S&P 500 - in good times and bad - has been difficult over recent years for individual stocks; for heavyweights in the Information Technology sector, including AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA, and even for the megacap stars GOOG, TSLA, and AMZN. In contrast, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index, less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment with high oil prices and elevated interest rates, could FFIV and CIEN face a similar situation as they did in 2022 and 2023 and underperform the S&P over the next 12 months - or will they see a strong jump? While they expect both stocks to move higher in the next three years, they think CIEN will fare better. 1. F5’s Revenue Growth Is Better 2. F5 Is More Profitable 3. The Net of It All FFIV stock versus CIEN stock TrefisWhile CIEN stock may outperform FFIV, it is helpful to see how F5’s peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons. FFIV Return Compared with Trefis Reinforced Value Portfolio TrefisInvest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios See all Trefis Price Estimates |
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